Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
