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It was 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the force he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.