Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
